Boise Real Estate Market Update – October 2025 Builders Brace for Slowdown

This month’s real estate data for Ada County, including Boise, Eagle, Meridian, Kuna, Star, and Garden City, delivered a few surprises. While many expected inventory to continue its late-summer decline, the numbers told a different story. Inventory crept up again, pending sales slipped, and a potential storm is forming in the luxury new-construction sector.

Let’s break down what’s happening and why it matters for buyers, sellers, and builders.

Inventory Unexpectedly Rises

After predicting a slight drop in listings for September, the opposite happened. Inventory rose by roughly 3% month-over-month, landing higher than expected.

• This increase wasn’t massive, but it’s notable for fall, typically a season of easing supply.
• Rates have dipped into the low sixes, which boosted buyer activity, but pending sales still dropped about 5%, from 559 in August to 523 in September.

The takeaway?
Even with improved affordability, some buyers are hesitating, and listings are beginning to stack up again.

Prices Continue to Edge Up

Despite mixed sales activity, home prices are holding steady and even climbing slightly.

• The average sold price across Ada County reached $622,000, up about 2% year to date.
• Homes under $800,000 remain the fastest-moving segment, with most selling in under 30 days.

This indicates that while luxury and new-construction segments may be slowing, core market demand remains strong.

Absorption Rates by Price Range

Ada County’s housing market is still operating below what’s considered a “balanced” level of supply.

Here’s how it breaks down:

• Under $800K: Less than 3 months of supply (a clear seller’s market).
• $800K–$1.5M: Around 3.4 months of supply, a balanced zone.
• Over $1.5M: Supply jumps significantly entering buyer’s market territory.

To put that in perspective, a balanced market typically has 5–7 months of supply. Ada County remains below that threshold overall, though the dynamics change drastically by price point.

Luxury New Construction: A Growing Concern

The biggest red flag this month sits at the very top of the market, new construction over $2 million.

• There are currently 37 active listings in Ada County above $2 million.
• Only 31 have sold in the past 12 months.
• That’s roughly 14.3 months of supply, nearly double what’s considered a balanced market.

Many of these are spec homes built without a buyer lined up, in anticipation of future demand. This is where the risk lies. Builders betting on continuous demand in the ultra-luxury segment could be in for a difficult winter.

Between 2011 and 2012, fewer than six homes priced over $1 million were sold per year in Ada County. The market has clearly matured since then, but such high-end saturation echoes patterns that historically precede price corrections.

For builders, repricing and faster sales strategies are essential to avoid being overexposed heading into 2026.

Days on Market and Buyer Behavior

• Average days on market: 36
• Range: 32 to 72 days, depending on price tier
  Homes priced below $500K are often seeing multiple offers within days, while higher-end properties may linger for weeks.

A few signs of distress are emerging in lower price points, mostly short sales and bank-owned listings, but these remain minimal compared to historical levels.

Looking Ahead

Historically, inventory falls by about 10% from September to October. However, given this month’s unexpected bump, it’s worth watching whether listings will hold steady instead. Forecast: Inventory could dip slightly below 1,250 active listings by next month, but much depends on whether buyer demand follows through on improved interest rates.